Ollie's annual christmas wish list to Santy

Dear Santy

How are you? It must be tough this year. For me, it's hard to know what to ask for. I mean, you have been very good to me in recent years, and I should by now be more self sufficient. How many more bail outs do I need?

Plus, I feel like I should just make whatever it is myself, such is the fashion for frugality these days: Grow it yourself, mend it yourself, where will it all end? Making jumpers out of old odd socks knitted together, to sell at the car boot sale?

Maybe I'm wrong to even be asking for stuff. So I'll try to be creative and modest, like dresses in the 1930s.

(image from green santa : check them out!)

First up has to be the implementation of the programme for government santy. I was very surprised to see all the organic and GM bits in there, especially with all the details about horticulture, voluntary GM free logos and the like.

So even just that, which includes a re-commitment to reaching 5% organic. That would be just dandy.

All kinds of options would open up, were we to reach 5% organic. Especially considering the fact that organic farms build soil quality, which helps prevent floods while also taking carbon from the air and putting it into the ground. That's just what we need now, so it is.

Maybe then, organic could start to take centre stage. Or, at least, not be left out in the cold completely.

Isn't it funny how the IFA complained about being left out of the big conference in Dublin David McWilliams organised? After complaining about being left out of the Irish Economic Forum, they left organic out of the conference they orgnaised.

This despite organic actually being a growth area in agri-food! You couldn't make it up Santy.

Maybe the organic guys should leave someone out of their next conference � biodynamic, or local, or the like.

I'm hoping you can also rig the vote on the new EU organic logo too. Is that too much? Otherwise, someone will probably set up a facebook campaign which will mean that the most partisan and least suitable logo will actually win.

Can you believe, Santy, its being decided by a public vote? They got students to come up with designs, and then made a shortlist available for voters. Do you remember that time the Wolfe Tones version of A Nation Once Again got voted the best song ever on a BBC pole? Either we're facing that malarkey Santy, or I'll get you to fix it for me.

I'd love to see some more organic farmers getting creative and finding creative routes to market. I know organic farmers who are selling tail and tongue to really trendy but affordable restaurants these days Santy � who'd have thought of it, eh?

I know the banks are being extra mean these days but necessity breeds ingenuity Santy, so I'm hoping more products like some of the great new ones we've seen come on board this year will emerge.

Now, that's a fair bit already, I know. Just here me out. Now that organic conversion has become available again, from 1st January, I'd like a handful of new organic farmers in each of the following areas: dairy, arable, horticulture. Just a handful now � I'm not greedy!

So in dairy, I'd like 4, in arable 5 and in horticulture about 5 big guys too. That's not too much more now is it? The conventional diary price is so poor santy, that there must be opportunities for them � especially with the new organic dairy farmer company, the Little Milk Company.

Who knows, maybe even Venison? Rudolph and the lads better watch out themselves! I'd say they are fairly organic, and would provide a mean meat for the hungry mob I have here to feed. Lean times here in Ireland, Mr Claus.

Things are tough santy, but I know you'll pull through. You always do!

Vandana Shiva Speaks at Climate Summit Protest

Protests rocked Copenhagen on Saturday, December 12 as anywhere from 30,000 to 100,000 people (depending on who you talk to) marched to the UN Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen to demand a strong climate treaty to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Indian physicist, author, and activist Vandana Shiva spoke to the crowd before the march:

RADICAL RUPTURE OR RADICAL REALISATION: ORGANIC FARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

With random and sudden ruptures, it becomes possible to imagine different realities.

Sudden war, sudden disaster, realising your girlfriend is pregnant, all of these things, from the personal to the seismic, can sharpen the focus and change the dynamic.

Ireland has just experienced sudden onset recession, and even more sudden onset flooding. So what was written in stone has been, literally and metaphorically, washed away.

Who knows what the next decade will bring? Even the next few years will be interesting in that Chinese proverbial sort of way: strikes, deflation, unemployment, but also perhaps the resourcefulness of a young, well educated population shining through.

(Image from NASA)

Global warming and the peaking of oil availability will be defining aspects of these coming years.

We don't know how related to global warming the recent flooding in Ireland has been.

But we do know that organic farming, in some very significant ways, fights both flooding and global warming.

The UK's Soil Association has recently released a report on the soil carbon building dimension to organic farming, and speculated on a world where organic farming was the norm.

This mega-imagining is radical rupture stuff, but maybe now is the time for that sort of thinking.

This new report's key point is that organic farming methods build up the amount of carbon in the soil, which in basic terms means that its not in the sky causing global warming.

Taking their cue from a review of the 39 available comparative studies of organic farming

soil carbon levels, they made some significant points:

�Soil carbon sequestration, according to the IPCC�s scientific advisors on land use, represents 89% of agriculture�s greenhouse gas mitigation potential.� (The IPCC are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

They describe this as a �blind spot�, as it is an otherwise under analysed area: most attention is focused on methane, nitrous oxide and anaerobic digestion.

In other words, locking carbon into the ground is farming's biggest trump card: the report in fact reveals that carbon sequestration may be far more significant that these other areas.

�Unlike the carbon released from fossil fuels, the soil carbon store has the potential to be recreated to a substantial degree�.

This means that farming, properly practiced, can be the planet's knight in shining Armour.

�More widespread adoption of organic farming practices and grass based and mixed farming systems � can make a significant and immediate contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation.�

Humid Ireland is well placed to further develop its grass based and mixed farming systems, as well as organic.

A key comparative finding is the following; �Organic farming practices produce 28% higher soil carbon levels than non-organic farming in Northern Europe, and 20% for all countries studied�

What these levels mean is that, if adopted on a significant scale globally, �organic farming could potentially sequester 1.5 billion t(onnes) C(arbon) per year, which would offset about 11% of all anthropogenic global GHG emissions for at least the next 20 years.�

Thinking globally on this level might seem far fetched and outlandish. But then, so do last year's property prices. And so would the current flood levels, from the vantage point of 12 months ago.

Imagine if farming offset 11% of all human-caused GHG (Green House Gas) emissions?

Crucially, bringing many relevant aspects of the global warming and farming debates together for a country like Ireland, the report suggests the following:

�Grass-fed livestock has a critical role to play in minimising carbon emissions from farming and this must be set against the methane emissions from cattle and sheep�.

�This is because grasslands for grazing livestock, whether permanent pasture or temporary grass on mixed farms...represent vitally important soil carbon stores.�

Ireland has a head start over the more intensive, compound feed driven meat and dairy sectors of other countries.

It may turn out that grass fed animals on mixed farms, just slightly adapted to encompass organic farming principles, will be a significant part of dealing with global warming.

Is that a radical rupture or a radical realisation?

ORGANIC FARMING CAN HELP PREVENT FLOODING

Organic farming can provide a natural barrier against flooding.

That's according to Professor Ewald Schnug and Dr Gerold Rahmann, of the Institute of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science and the Institute of Organic Farming at the Federal Agricultural Research Centre in Germany.

They point out that �organically managed soils show approximately seven times more earthworms and twice as high infiltration rates as soils on conventional farms. Employing crop rotations with forage crops (for example clover or grass) and catch crops, as well as an optimal supply of organic materials results in a higher humus content in organically managed soils.�

(picture: flooding around ennis)

These results on soil structure and infiltration rates are visible within three years, they claim.

Indeed the researchers go so far as to suggest �that substantial support of organic farms is justified to pay for a service provided by the farms to the community�, and that �support for organic farming could be an efficient measure to counteract anthropogenic soil consumption which contributes to flooding dangers�.

In the absence of synthetic fertilizers to make the plants on the surface grow faster and stronger, organic farming relies on soil building techniques such as clover stitching and composting. This, it turns out, makes the soil more able to deal with extreme weather conditions. Basically, the soil retains its elasticity.

On the other hand, with modern intensive agricultural practices, soils get compacted and loose their ability to allow water to flow, or infiltrate down deeper into the ground.

Soils are sealed or compacted when water's infiltration capacity is reduced. The main causes of this are �decreasing organic matter contents, decreasing biological activity and increasing compaction caused by high mechanic stress of soil structures� according to Schnug and Rahmann.

�Conversely, high infiltration rates of healthy soils can reduce the intensity of flood incidents�.

While conservation tillage (i.e. no plough techniques) in conventional farming helps, according to the researchers, �on organic farms a much larger number of positive factors for the development of "bio-pores" in the soil exist. Such bio-pores are the key to improved infiltration and are mainly created by earthworms.�

There is an increasing body of research into organic farming and soil structure. Hole et al 2005 conducted a literature review of 76 studies on the effect of organic farming on individual taxon, from 1981 to 2004.

In all cases organic scored better than conventional, including for all the underground taxon, such as earthworms, beetles, other arthropods and soil microbes. Plant life was also effectively positively by organic farming in 13 of the cases, with mixed results or no difference in just 2 cases. A variety of plants increases the range of depths of rooting for plants, which again aids soil structure.

Other research again (e.g. Kasperczyk and Knickel 2005) found that organic farming increases both infiltration and soil (as opposed to surface) water retention capacity.

Two long running field trials, the DOK trials in Switzerland and the Rhodale trails in the US, found similar results, in terms of organic faming preventing soil erosion and soil compaction, and coping with extreme weather conditions.

According to a 2003 peer reviewed publication on the Rhodale research, �Soils in the organic plots captured more water and retained more of it in the crop root zone than in the CNV [conventional] treatment. Water capture in the organic plots was approximately 100% higher than in CNV plots during September�s torrential rains�.

These torrential rains came after a earlier drought, where again the organic trial area coped better than the conventional one.

With the DOK trials, the organic plots not only exhibited higher soil-organism activity, but also a greater numbers and diversity of microorganism, earthworms and ground beetle species.

It appears then, that nourishing the soil rather than just the plant is the key. Synthetic fertilizers have given humanity the ability to make the grasses on the surface grow rapidly.

But what about the soil? Through a variety of techniques, organic farming not only improves soil quality, it works against the extreme weather conditions we are increasingly likely to face this century.

Comming Clean

Check out this great video from Terressentials body care products! Then click here to find out ways that you can stop organic body care product fraud.

Singing from the same hymn sheet: Organic Ireland(s)

In his keynote address to the recent Irish Organic Farmers and Growers Association (IOFGA ) AGM, Minister for Food and Horticulture Trevor Sargent made all the right soundings.

He reiterated the government commitment to the �growth and development of the organic sector�.

The Organic Farming Scheme will reopen in January 2010 and the Minister also hopes to reopen the schemes of grant aid for the development of the organic sector in January.

Minister Sargent himself is one of IOFGA's 155 new organic producer applicants.

Managing the political balance nicely, when I spoke to him at the event, he pointed out that he was getting certified by both IOFGA and the Organic Trust.

�Even though my patch is probably the smallest one in the country registered as organic I am delighted with it and enjoy all of the fresh produce that it yields though small in scale�.

This small patch is in fact extremely fertile, informative and productive: you can follow its progress, from bottling beetroot to taking everlasting cabbage cuttings, here

The Minister also pointed out that, following the committment in the Programme for Government, �a voluntary non-gm label for producers is also in the planning stages.�

The most recent figures on the numbers farming organically were presented: �1,532 organic operators in Ireland with 48,911 hectares of land under organic production methods which represents about 1.25% of overall agricultural land� according to the Minister.

He also noted that �the number of applications for the Schemes of Grant Aid for the Development of the Organic Sector has increased substantially in the last two years�. Grant aid was suspended in July, as �the applications on hand had fully taken up this year's allocation�.However, �after the new estimates are decided I hope I can re-open these Schemes in January next.�

Progress in public procurement was noted: the Marine Institute has now upped its organic menu to two days per week, while the canteen in the mothership itself, Agriculture House, has committed two days per week to organic.

The minister also reaffirmed his commitment to organic horticulture, and spoke of a �deficit of expert horticultural advice� in Ireland.

This is however questionable. Hundreds of people have actually been trained in organic horticulture in Ireland over the years, far more than in any other organic farming or growing sector.

And yet very few have transferred over to being full time field scale growers, or even market gardeners.

At times, the organic horticulture training has seemed to be as much about social inclusion and self sufficiency as about ramping up production. Laudable and all as these former motivations are, there is also surely a place for the latter.

To this end, yet more efforts are being made, including the establishment of Organic Growers of Ireland, and the emphasis on organic horticulture in the programme for government. Also, the personnel on the new organic development body Foras Organach is revealing.

Padraig Fahy, organic grower and direct seller, who is actually one of those who came through Drumcollagher organic training collage, sells organic fruits and vegetables at farmers' markets in Galway and Westmeath.

Noel Groom, chair of Foras Organach heads up a major fresh fruit and vegetable wholesaler in north county Dublin.

IOFGA also announced a new board: The new chairperson is Dr. Sinead Neiland from the Organic College in Dromcollogher.

Newly elected board members are Dominic Leonard, an organic farmer in Laois; Clare O Connor owner of Manna Organic Store in Tralee and organic grower; Gillian Westbrook Research Executive from the ICSA and Kitty Scully from the Nano Nagle Centre for Ecology and Spirituality in Cork.

In Trevor Sargent, the organic sector has a Minister who understands both its needs and its motivations. From global food security to powdery mildew in his own back garden, he is on song - singing from the organic hymn sheet. Here's hoping the organic sector is in tune.

It's a recipe!

Looking for a last minute recipe to boost your Thanksgiving meal into an epicurean orbit? Originally printed in the November 2007 Co-op News, Cathy�s raw cranberry relish is so darn delicious, you can wrap it up and give it as a gift. If you can bare to part with it, that is.

Better to double the recipe . . . just in case.

Cathy�s Cranberry Fruit Relish

Makes about 3 � cups

Note from Cathy: I use all organic ingredients and do not peel the fruit.

Ingredients:

1 pound cranberries

1 navel orange, unpeeled and chopped in small pieces

1 firm red delicious or gala apple, chopped into small pieces

1 firm pear, chopped into small pieces

� - 2/3 cups of dates, pitted and chopped

� - 1 cup walnuts, shelled and chopped

1 � 1 � cups xylitol (available in the Supplements Dept.)

Directions:

1. Wash and chop or cut cranberries into quarters

2. Mix cranberries with chopped fruit and nuts

3. Add xylitol, if it�s not sweet enough for your taste, add more

4. Mix and chill

Enjoy! Fondly, Cathy Banks

CLONMEL FARMERS' MARKET: QUALITY, VALUE AND REVERSING DONUTIFICATION

�You just can't get stuff this fresh � it was picked this morning�, so says Siobhan, a salt of the earth middle aged shopper at Clonmel's farmers' market. A massive self-serve bag of salad leaves, complete with nasturtium's for colour and spice, for 3 euros. This leafy vibrant bag is a million miles from the supermarket option: jaded bags puffed out with inert gas and binned 45% of the time, according to research.

She picks up a bottle of Happy Heart Organic Rapeseed Oil, the only other product on sale at the stall. This oil, winner in the sustainability category at the recent Bord Bia national organic awards, comes from Drumeen farm in Kilkenny.

Drumeen is one of Ireland's pioneering organic farms run by the Colchester family. It dates back to the mid 1970s, and the second generation is now branching out into what is an incredible tasting oil. Kitty Colchester's boyfriend Joe Moore runs the stall. �Its grown, pressed and bottled on the farm� he tells me proudly.

In fact, this oil is pressed every week, making it just about the freshest of all oils available in Ireland. And a snip at E6 for a half litre, such is its quality.

The market is busy from the get go, with a constant trail of people arriving, the occasional one by bike. Despite the intermittent rain, people stay to shop. When the rain eases off, they start to sit at the tables and chairs, taking in the atmosphere.

Jurgen the gourmet coffee man seems to have a permanent buzz around him. His Fair Trade americano is E1.70, which is a great price for what is a very well made gourmet coffee.

Joe Condon's organic Galloway steakburgers burgers have sold out since noon.

�I haven't seen a drop off in sales at all with the recession� he tells me; �my customers are buying more burgers than they used to, and less steak, but I sell out every week. I get a lot of people who used to go to restaurants to eat out once or twice a week. Now, they're eating organic meat at home�.

Condon's 4 pack of organic burgers retail at E6.50, which Conor Pope gave the top grade to in his pricewatch column. Its easy to see why: Condon has samples the day I visit, and the burgers seem to get bigger rather than smaller when cooked on the BBQ. �The meats' hung for 3 weeks, so it looses weight but develops flavour that way. You won't see a puddle of water run off when you cook them. People appreciate that�.

Because of this, it is difficult to even compare like with like, when comparing what you get at a farmers' market to a supermarket: �A big processor just wouldn't bother to go to the trouble I go to: it wouldn't be economical for them. It is for me because I direct sell�according to Condon.

Like everything else in Ireland, farmers' markets are feeling a pinch. Some smaller, peripheral markets have closed or struggle on. However, the bigger ones, such as Dun Laoire or Mahon Point, are doing exceptionally well. There are also incredible waiting lists for stalls, as newly unemployed people look for alternative ways to make money.

I asked a few of the shoppers why they went to the trouble of the farmers' market: was it, for example, health or the environment?

�I don't see a separation really� was the overwhelming response. For most shoppers I spoke to that day, these issues were one and the same; healthy soil, healthy planet, healthy body.

Others also pointed to the fact that actually meeting the person who produced the food was vital � �I can trust what I'm putting in my body if I can look in the eye the person who grew it� as one woman said to me.

Others again pointed to the conviviality of the place; �shopping as it should be�, as one twenty something on a bike joked, playing on the popular Supervalu supermarket slogan.

Bernie Lennon, local Green Party councilor, was instrumental in setting up this market. �We were worried that, like so many towns, Clonmel would turn into a donut�. I pressed him on this Homer Simpsonesque image: �empty in the middle, with a ring of development around it�.

But now, thanks in part to the Saturday farmers' market, the donutification of Clonmel is being challenged: in fact, the donuts at the two bakery stalls are playing their own small part in revitalisating the town centre, the producers and the consumers in this part of Ireland.

SCHOOLS, GARDENS AND THOSE PESKY 67 MILLION BIRDS

There is something just right about organic and gardening. Organic and gardening seem to go together like crackers and cheese, or laurel and hardy.

Add school children into the mix, and organic almost becomes de rigeur. This probably says a lot about societies' impression of children as innocent little bundles of delicate joy, as well as the very real physiological developmental differences between children and adults.

For example, it is easier now to get organic babyfood than conventional, and even conventional babyfood has severe ingredient restrictions which make it closer to organic anyway.

On the home page of Bord Bia's website, there is a link to an organic gardening for primary schools initiative. This features a complimentary DVD available to primary schools to equip them with the knowledge and ability to build, develop and maintain an organic garden within existing school grounds.

Students can learn how to grow healthy foods, understand plant life and the importance of seasonality. The garden can also be used to explain concepts such as water cycle, biodiversity, composting and other related areas.

This initiative began in February 2008, when four different schools had their progress recorded over an 18 month period. The schools, two in Dublin, one in Kildare and one in Louth, were assisted by a team of organic experts.

Children from all classes were involved in the project and the DVD demonstrates the children�s involvement in creating a garden. The focus was different in the different schools � for example very little development of a school garden had taken place in the Holy Trinity School in Donaghmede, Dublin, while the school in Prosperous, Kildare had a well developed garden in place and the focus here was in enhancing it. This involved an insect hotel and improving their composting facilities.

While this is impressive enough, the fact is that for the last two years, about 2000 schools have, to varying degrees, been involved in mostly organic gardening anyway.

Both agri-aware's meet the spuds and incredible edibles involved schoolchildren planting and maintaining school gardens. None of the instructions involved any agri-chemicals. Schools I visited over those two years certainly developed their gardens organically.

Over in the White House, Michelle Obama has had school children gardening organically too. Her aim is educational: �My hope is that through children, they will begin to educate their families and that will, in turn, begin to educate our communities� according to Obama.

Sniffing a PR disaster, The MidAmerica CropLife Asociaton wrote a slightly bizarre letter to the First Lady, outlining the importance of conventional agriculture.

Some of the claims are entertaining. The letter implies that organic garden is a rejection of the kind of farming that has help the US lead the world in �the advancement of science, communication, education, medicine, transportation and the arts�.

Interesting too is the claim that �sophisticated Global Positioning Systems can be specifically designed for spraying pesticides. A weed detector equipped with infrared light identifies specific plants by the different rates of light they reflect and then sends a signal to a pump to spray a preset amount of herbicide onto the weed.�

Less militaristically, the letter also claims that �agricultural land provides habitat for 75% of the nation's wildlife.�

Yet somehow at least 67 million birds die immediately as a direct result of pesticide applications in farming in the US every year.

In fact, this figure is considered conservative, as it does not include indirect bird deaths: �birds that perish after a period of illness, that die after feeding on poisoned insects, rodents, or other prey, or losses due to failed reproduction� according to the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Hardly the most precise use of biocides, or the most benign way to provide a habitat.

From Pennsylvania Avenue to Prosperous County Kildare, in the battle between holistic nature studies and scientific surgical strikes, it seems that the former is winning out.

After all, 67 million dead birds can't be wrong.

IEA and oil availability part 2: how prepared is Ireland for less oil?

According to Dr Brian Motherway, Head of Strategy in Sustainable Energy Ireland �the IEA�s own estimates have dropped considerably in recent years:...no-one disagrees with the underlying principle that it is only a matter of time before oil becomes much more expensive and much less available�.

As regards Ireland's preparedness for this reality, �Ireland needs to act on this now. We are heavily dependent on imports of oil and gas, and this is not sustainable. Ireland is making progress in reducing fossil fuel dependence in electricity in particular�. Transport however, is still �almost entirely dependent on imported oil�.

He continues �we need action on all fronts to reduce our vulnerability. This includes actions to reduce our energy use by increasing efficiency, and also action to increase our use of indigenous, renewable resources.�

When queried on specific initiatives, a representative of the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources pointed out that �in 2008, over 12% of our electricity came from renewable energy sources�, and that �we have increased our targets to 40% by 2020.� Renewables will �provide 12% of the power in the heating sector by 2020�.

He goes on �Ireland also has a target of 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet in Ireland to be powered by electricity by 2020�, which includes an arrangement with Renault-Nissan to ensure that �Ireland will be one of the first countries in the world to be supplied with both Renault and Nissan electric cars.�

Recent changes to the motor tax regime have also resulted in a shift towards more energy efficient private vehicle preferences.

Specifically in relation to oil supply shocks, �systems are in place to deal with shorter term supply disruptions or emergency scenarios in relation to oil, gas or electricity supply.

�The National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA) is responsible for ensuring that Ireland has 90 days of oil supplies in reserve for use in the event of an international or national supply disruption. A stakeholder task force has also been established �charged with assessing the robustness of existing energy emergency procedures�.

However this all seems piecemeal, if the concerns voiced by Irish-based Members of FEASTA, the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, are to be believed.

According to Richard Douthwaite, �FEASTA and others have been saying that we're on the point of oil peak for some time�. Douthwaite suggests that oil production peaked in July of last year, and has been dropping since. It is now going to be �its going to be virtually impossible to ramp up production�.

This means that �growth globally will simply not happen�. In this context, the massive NAMA-related debts Ireland has just taken on will be impossible to service, as these debts are higher than they would otherwise be due to their projected market value in the future.

The lack of energy availability will mean that �energy prices will go very high and purchasing power will leave economy, just when we need to find money to pay interest on the debts we've undertaken.�

David Korowicz, also of FEASTA, continues �much of the infrastructure we take for granted such as energy systems, supply-chains, IT and communication systems, sewage and water provision are very vulnerable�. He noted that �even in the most advanced countries we could be on the edge of a serious food crisis�.

So is the situation hopeless, for the planet and for Ireland?

Even Korowicz manages a note of optimism: �there is much we can do to manage the risks, and much we can do that is inspiring and hopeful. In seeing this as a societal issue, requiring an urgent and collective effort, we can find the common purpose that in recent times has been so lacking�.

(Note: FEASTA are involved in this, which is about coping mechanisms)

International Energy Agency and oil: How much is left, and what are the alternatives, part 1

The International Energy Agency (IEA) report, issued on Tuesday, makes for grim reading. The report is used by governments all over the world to set energy policy.

Business as usual would put the planet on track for a 6 degree rise in global temperatures.

The report demonstrates that containing climate change is possible but will require �a profound transformation of the energy sector.�

Keeping Co2 levels in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million (ppm), which many experts feel will only give the planet a 50-50 chance of avoiding runaway climate change, will require �a profound transformation of the energy sector� according to the IEA.

�To achieve this scenario, fossil-fuel demand would need to peak by 2020 and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to fall to 26.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2030 from 28.8 Gt in 2007� according to the IEA

Two of the main challenges include increased demand from China and India, as well as lack of investment in renewables and efficiencies due to the downturn.

Current oil producers also face losses of many trillions of dollars if global agreement can be reached on aiming for a limit of 450 ppm.

The small rises in supplies of "non-conventional oil", such as the tar sands of Canada, involve extreme climate polluting extraction methods.

Even nuclear, often lauded as carbon neutral, is not. The drilling, blasting, excavating, separating and transporting of uranium is not taken into account by western governments in their own figures.

It has been reported that the Namibian government plans to build a coal fired power plant to provide electricity for its uranium mines, due to increased UK demand. This could produce more than 10 million tonnes of Co2 a year, while also draining resources such as water and producing huge mountains of nuclear waste, waste which remains problematic far into the future.

Coping with nuclear waste for millennia, in a world with no fossil fuels, will be interesting to say the least.

Alarming and all as it was, some of the IEA's thunder was stolen by a whistleblower, as reported in the Guardian on Monday.

This person, described as a senior official with the IEA, claimed that the IEA has been exaggerating the amount of oil left due to US pressure. This then prompted the IEA to publish more details on the figures.

However even the figures themselves are worrying. Fields yet to be developed and even yet to be found make the situation look better than it otherwise is.

What are the implications for Ireland? How ready is Ireland for a oil shortage? See next posting.

It's a recipe!

Em�s Peanut Butter

Apple Rad Salad!

Looking for something simple to make with exceptional taste? If so, then you must try Em�s�one of our dedicated and talented chefs from the Co-op�s Deli�Peanut Butter Apple Rad Salad.

Chock full of the flavors you love (yummy peanut butter and crunchy apples!), this delicious fruit salad is a delightful breakfast treat, a satisfying lunch side dish, and just the recipe that you need to make for Thanksgiving company.

Once you try it, we guarantee you�ll be making it again and again.

Thanks Em for sharing!

Peanut Butter Apple Rad Salad

Em tells us that she created and made this recipe in a 1/2 hour, so feel free to change the ingredients to your liking and your schedule. We think you�re going to love it just the way she makes it.

Salad

5 granny smith apples (tangy element)

5 arkansas black apples (crunchy classic)

4 asian pears (juicy � helps with the peanut butter effect)

2 cups raisins

2 cups hemp seeds

1 cup dried mango

Dressing

In a blender (or by hand if you�re trying to use less electricity!) combine the following:

2 cups peanut butter (salted kind)

1 tsp. ginger

apple juice � enough to make the peanut butter soft and gooey; Em suggests 1 and 1/2 cups, added a bit at a time

To make

Cut fruit into chunks, then add the raisins, hemp seeds and dried mango.

Dress salad with sauce and be prepared for extreme mouth-joy.

Who's thinking about going organic for 2010?

The rate of conversion to organic in Ireland has fluctuated over the years. More recently, slow but steady growth has been recorded.

At present, the main block to conversion is a technical one: �quite a number of farmers are still in REPS 3, and won't finish until 2011� according to Teagasc organic farming specialist Dan Clavin. �They can't actually sign up to the organic farming scheme until their REPS 3 runs out�.

The Department tried to have this situation rectified at EU level, to no avail. Nonetheless, there are at present about 150 people signed up to the organic farming courses running at the various centers around Ireland.

More courses will run early next year due to demand. And, according to Dan Clavin: �there will be an on line course too; that might suit part timers�. He goes on: �There will still be farm visits on this course�.

Of the 150 signed up, the majority of the farmers are involved with drystock enterprises.

The greatest interest in the courses is coming from the regions where the numbers of organic farmers is already strong. So in broad terms there are more participating in the courses in the south than the northern half of the country.

According to Teagasc organic farming specialist Pat Barry; �There has been an excellent start to the courses, with a high level of interaction between the farmer participants and the advisers involved. It is proving to be extremely useful in helping individuals evaluate their own farming systems and to make an informed decision when converting to organic status. �

Pat Barry's courses run in Clonmel, Mallow and Killarney, with about 15 participants in each.

�I'm running three at present, and all are full, with 22 in each� according to Dan Clavin. �Most are farmers with sucklers. Some are looking at finishing, at cutting down on suckler numbers, or trying to sell weanlings as stores or for finishing�.

Some bad prices have been reported at marts for organic cattle, so it is understandable that at least some are considering finishing.

He goes on �There is less finishing in the west, farmers over here are more used to carrying lambs or weanlings�.

In terms of what's attracting farmers to organic, �they see good prices for organic beef and are disillusioned with conventional farming� suggests Clavin. This disillusionment comes from �both the price they are getting and the cost of farming conventionally�.

Dan Clavin's courses are currently running in Ennis, Athenry and Boyle, which covers most of Clare and Connaught.

According to Clavin �There is strong interest in the west: next up will be Claremorris due to demand in Galway and Mayo�.

The midlands are being covered by Teagasc's James McDonnell and Elaine Leavy. There are about 35 in total on these courses, which run in Portlaoise and Mullingar.

Portlaoise is one of the few courses featuring tillage farmers: while some dry stock farmers consider feed crops, there are tillage growers in Portlaoise considering the currently attractive organic oat price, and Flahavan's stated desire to source more Irish grown organic oats.

While there is a smattering of horticulture also represented on some of the courses, it seems thus far only one dairy farmer has signed up for one of these courses.

In the North West has demand so far been slow, with the course in Letterkenny canceled. However, according to Elaine Leavy, who was due to run this course, it will most likely run in the new year.

In the course of other organic farming related work, I have myself spoken to three hill farmers from south Donegal who are ready to do the course, which is encouraging.

Mary Lynch is also running a Teagasc approved course in the Nano Nagle centre in Mallow, Cork.

All in all, this level of interest does represent still more slow but steady growth. Depending upon the number of courses that run in the new year, this trickle may at least become a stream.

The most local local food event ever

�We boiled the sea water to make salt�. So says Sinead Ni Ghairbhith, organiser of the second annual Clare Harvest Banquet.

That's when I knew that this was in fact the most local local food event I'd ever been to.

The Banquet is a fundraiser for a street children's charity in Mongolia, Astral. Almost 300 are in attendance, and the mood is mighty, with a host of local performers complementing the food.

(pic: a chef, a farmer and a consumer at a Dungarvan farmers' market: says it all really. Copyright Oliver Moore)

Ireland's only Tibetan Lama and even Duncan Stewart himself are here: the latter is making a programme about food and the environment, the former a friend of Ni Ghairbhith.

Indeed the Tibetan and Mongolian dimensions really reveal how positively 'glocal' the whole show is: a local event aware of the globe in all its positive and negative nuances.

The event also acts as something of an agri-food experiment. The aim is to have a completely local event, where all, literally all, the ingredients come from the county of Clare.

Its as if Clare is a blockaded island during a war. Unlike frugal but clever wartime rationing, like boiling the egg in your kettle on the range while making a cup of tea, the aim is to actually have a brilliant banquet. So this is a glorious, spectacular celebration of the resourcefulness and ingenuity and, most of all, of the food of the county.

Even all the unusual frilly extras are local. Like the six local fruits, including pears and grapes. Or the chilli, corriander, and corn on the cob, from the farmers' markets' of Clare.

Local organic fruit and veg growers and suppliers Goerg and Angelika Schleiser produce what is amongst the best veg in the country: up there with Cork's Ultan Quinn. At home, both my nine year old son and my 60+ father can spot their carrots a mile off by their taste and appearance respectively.

Ann Nolan and Clare Linanne from Burren vegetables are also providing great vegetables, as well as oats.

Eva Hegarthy from Kilfinora, who sells at Kilaloe and Ennis farmers' markets, has provided the smoked pork belly.

Clare is especially lucky to have Killaloe's Wines of the Glen, who's gooseberry, elderflower and apple and elderberry wines are a perfect replacement for imported grape based wines. The elderberry is remarkably like a Beaujolais.

Excellent cheeses abound: They include Sinead's sister Siobhan's St.Tolas raw organic goat's cheese, from Inagh. Michael and Lucy Hayes's Mount Callan is another raw milk's cheese featured, this time from a herd of Montbelliard cows.

The Ice Cream, in one of the largest ice cream bowls I've ever seen, comes from Bridget and Rodger Fahy's Linalla in the Burren. Their herd of shorthorn cattle provide exceptional and creamy milk: when its this good, I always go for the vanilla.

A key trick seems to be smoking and storage. Smoking and proper storage means many foods, from fish to apples to spuds, can be eaten out of season in Ireland.

Peter and Brigitta Curtin's Burrensmokehouse in Listoonvarna is renowned for the quality of their salmon and mackrel, smoked in their 5.5 tonne cavernous steel smokehouse beneath their eatery.

Ni Ghairbhith also pointed out that the Irish Seed Savers gave both great apples and great advice on storage. �They have the largest collection of self-rooting apple trees in the world� she tells me. They also have 140 different types of Irish native varieties, making it a great place to source a tree or two.

How did it all taste? In a word, spectacular. Much of the produce was either donated or cost price, and the good vibes must have entered the food by osmosis.

While the effort gone to was a special effort for a special occasion, this event nonetheless acts like a microcosm of what could be done to relocalise food in Ireland. Or, at least, what could be done if Ireland 'the food island' is to reduce food imports. Each year we export nearly E9 billion, but import E6 billion.

The dairy sector, incredibly, is actually an area with serious import substitution potential. We import about E900 million of dairy products into Ireland each year. For every four euros of diary exports Ireland makes, it imports one euro back in.

While for a tiny minority of these imports, a case can probably be made - for example with unusual artisan cheeses - in the majority of cases with dairy one commodity replaces another.

So, while being almost 1000% self sufficient in a commodity like butter, we also import butter. This food product literally passes itself on shipping lanes, coming in and coming out, like shift workers duplicating work.

There are some mitigating circumstances: some of these imports are for the agri-food processing sector, or of products not available or producible here.

However, consumers have a responsibility too: the consumer can and regularly does change consumption patters over time.

For example, there is a growing market for 100% grass fed beef. This would reduce our cereal imports, as well as the carbon footprint of our meat and dairy sectors.

The desire is there: According to Bord Bia research, seven out of ten shoppers want to buy local � and that research was conducted before the recession, when the national economic benefits have become all the clearer in supporting local and Irish. Even then, 93% of those that buy local do so because they want to support the local economy. 58% of supermarket consumers buy local food there.

Growth rates for farmers' markets continue to rise; there are over 150 listed by Bord Bia now. Certainly, while smaller rural markets may occasionally struggle, markets serving a bigger catchment area are thriving.

When I spoke to the department of Agriculture Fisheries and Food about imports and self sufficiency, they informed me that �there would be capacity for import substitution in areas such as pigmeat, poultry, certain dairy products, certain cereals, vegetables and potatoes�.

Not before time, the agri-food sector in Ireland has begun to get its act together to promote Irish food, with the 'Love Irish Food' campaign. Agri-Aware has also gotten in on the act, recruiting high profile economist Jim Power and pointing out that one in seven jobs in Ireland depend on the agri-food sector. Crucially, agri-food has proven itself to be less prone to the recession than other sectors in the economy.

Why such a slow rate of conversion to organic?

While organic farming has grown in popularity, the rate of growth has been slow. Why is this?

First, the figures themselves. Up until 2000, growth rates were fast. Then, a shock to beef and sheep exports froze the sector's growth until about 2005. From 2005 until today, there has been a faster rate of growth.

To put specific figures on this: in 1993, there were 283 holdings, with about 5,500 hectares of land.

This rose significantly year on year, with strong state supports, so that by 2000, there were 907.

However from 2000 to 2004 the numbers stagnated, fluctuating by small amounts year on year.

(image: an old IOFGA logo, c. 1989)

Growth since about 2005 has however been stronger. While the rate of increase has been small, the trend has at least been upwards each year since 2005.

The most recent 2008 figures claim 1450 operators, with 44,751 hectares: up c.9,500 hectares from 2005.

This trend is likely to continue from January to May 15th next year, when the window to convert to organic opens again.

However, encouraging and all as these figures are, they still represent a slow rate of growth, especially with the aim for 5% land area organic by 2012.

So why is the rate of growth so slow? One reason suggested by commentators is the conservatism of the farming community. Organic farming has been seen as an imported and urban or consumer-led phenomenon. These elements do not sit well with conservatism.

Also, farming is an isolated job; organic farming can seem doubly so, as by going organic, you are likely to be somewhat out of kilter with your neighbours.

The farming community has become very skeptical of official advice. Advice on farming has changed over the years, and this has cost farmers time and money.

Likewise, previously stable elements of the overall farming package, from FEPS to REPS, have been fundamentally altered. This has made planning difficult, change financially risky and trust of officialdom weak.

In this unstable context, advice to convert to organic farming will also inevitably be taken with a grain of salt.

That said, the new programme for government commitments to organic farming are strong. And while growth rates for organic food sales in Ireland are strong too, farmers I have spoken to fear the effects of recession on consumer priorities.

The overall effect of these positive and negative elements may be for more of the same: relatively steady but small growth rates for organic farming.

There are other slightly deeper reasons for slow growth rates.

Some question the need for organic farming at all. Southern Ireland never had an industrial revolution, whereas mainland Europe has had 300 years of one. Irish cattle and sheep eat a mainly grass based diet and Irish family farms are quite small even compared to Northern Ireland's. We are, to some extent, seen as a clean green island off the north west coast of Europe.

Of course, this is equally an argument for us to 'go the whole hog' as it were, sign up to organic and add to this clean green image. And while this happens to some extent, as seen in growth rates, this option is tempered by the conservatism outlined earlier.

Experts who study the dynamics between farming sectors have mapped out different stages of relationship between organic and conventional farming. These farming �institutional interrelationships� have three stages: pure competition, creative conflict and pure co-operation.

Pure competition exists when one side does not even acknowledge the other; creative conflict presumes some interactions and dialogue; pure co-operation presumes that both sides are signing from the same hymn sheet.

There are elements of the first two in Ireland at present: the IFA have had little to do with organic farming over the years. Even now, it has no dedicated organic farming committee. These suggest pure competition.

However, there are signs that this is, to a small extent, changing at present. Richard Moeran, chair of Cavan's IFA, for example, is an organic farmer. The numbers attending the organic farm walks this year was high.

Pure co-operation, however, is still a shimmer on the horizon.

Green Beliefs afforded same rights as religious beliefs...in the UK

Here is a quirky enviro story, in the run up to the Copenhagen Climate Change summit:

Employees who raise concerns about their company's environmental practices won the right to legal redress yesterday after a judge ruled that green beliefs deserved the same protection in the workplace as religious convictions. In a landmark ruling which legal experts said could open the floodgates to thousands of claims, appeal judge Mr Justice Burton, ruled that environmental views should be protected under the employment equality laws. Workers who are victimised for strong environmental views such as how a company should deal with cutting carbon, managing waste or using aviation to travel to meetings can now bring compensation claims against employers.

For more on this see the feature in the Guardian

People's Celebrates Halloween