According to Dr Brian Motherway, Head of Strategy in Sustainable Energy Ireland �the IEA�s own estimates have dropped considerably in recent years:...no-one disagrees with the underlying principle that it is only a matter of time before oil becomes much more expensive and much less available�.
As regards Ireland's preparedness for this reality, �Ireland needs to act on this now. We are heavily dependent on imports of oil and gas, and this is not sustainable. Ireland is making progress in reducing fossil fuel dependence in electricity in particular�. Transport however, is still �almost entirely dependent on imported oil�.
He continues �we need action on all fronts to reduce our vulnerability. This includes actions to reduce our energy use by increasing efficiency, and also action to increase our use of indigenous, renewable resources.�
When queried on specific initiatives, a representative of the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources pointed out that �in 2008, over 12% of our electricity came from renewable energy sources�, and that �we have increased our targets to 40% by 2020.� Renewables will �provide 12% of the power in the heating sector by 2020�.
He goes on �Ireland also has a target of 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet in Ireland to be powered by electricity by 2020�, which includes an arrangement with Renault-Nissan to ensure that �Ireland will be one of the first countries in the world to be supplied with both Renault and Nissan electric cars.�
Recent changes to the motor tax regime have also resulted in a shift towards more energy efficient private vehicle preferences.
Specifically in relation to oil supply shocks, �systems are in place to deal with shorter term supply disruptions or emergency scenarios in relation to oil, gas or electricity supply.
�The National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA) is responsible for ensuring that Ireland has 90 days of oil supplies in reserve for use in the event of an international or national supply disruption. A stakeholder task force has also been established �charged with assessing the robustness of existing energy emergency procedures�.
However this all seems piecemeal, if the concerns voiced by Irish-based Members of FEASTA, the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, are to be believed.
According to Richard Douthwaite, �FEASTA and others have been saying that we're on the point of oil peak for some time�. Douthwaite suggests that oil production peaked in July of last year, and has been dropping since. It is now going to be �its going to be virtually impossible to ramp up production�.
This means that �growth globally will simply not happen�. In this context, the massive NAMA-related debts Ireland has just taken on will be impossible to service, as these debts are higher than they would otherwise be due to their projected market value in the future.
The lack of energy availability will mean that �energy prices will go very high and purchasing power will leave economy, just when we need to find money to pay interest on the debts we've undertaken.�
David Korowicz, also of FEASTA, continues �much of the infrastructure we take for granted such as energy systems, supply-chains, IT and communication systems, sewage and water provision are very vulnerable�. He noted that �even in the most advanced countries we could be on the edge of a serious food crisis�.
So is the situation hopeless, for the planet and for Ireland?
Even Korowicz manages a note of optimism: �there is much we can do to manage the risks, and much we can do that is inspiring and hopeful. In seeing this as a societal issue, requiring an urgent and collective effort, we can find the common purpose that in recent times has been so lacking�.
(Note: FEASTA are involved in this, which is about coping mechanisms)
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