Organic news 14th April 2011

NEWS ****NEWS****NEWS****

Organic sales in Ireland return to stability:

"According to the latest Kantar data (52 wk ended 20th Feb 2011) the Irish organic market is valued at �97.8m. This represents a marginal decline on the previous year but signals a significant slowdown in the rate of decline from 14% a year earlier." according to Mary Morrissey of Bord Bia, who have access to Kantar's research (slightly wacky super slick site btw!)

Similar news came from the UK and the US recently, whereas the mainland of the EU never saw decline anyway.....more on this in the Examiner soon....

Organic Farming and Climate Change mitigation:

Two talks coming up soon:@ Dublin and Cloughjordan by Gundula Azeez, formerly of the British National Farmers Union, the Soil Association the EU Commission. Part of the FEASTA lecture series on Low External Input Agriculture - the only road to a sustainable food supply ,these talks will encompass farming, climate change, organic and biochar. Full weekend of events listed here

Farm Diversification - piecemeal or significant?

Once seen as a diversion from 'real farming', increasingly, farmers are opting for one or more of the many diversification opportunities out there.

There are powerful drivers for this.

Off-farm employment has been a vital part of the rural economy in recent years. It accounted for 81% of household income on part-time farms and 38% on full-time farms according to the National Farm Survey 2009.

(pic: an apiary)

However, there has been a decline in the availability of off farm jobs since 2007 especially.

In 2009 �35% of farms, the main farm operator had off-farm jobs while on 51% of farms the farmer and/or the spouse had off-farm employment�. That's according to Teagasc economic geographer David Meredith, who also stated at a recent Jobs' conference:

�The level of off-farm employment dropped substantially from the peak in 2007 where on 41% of farms the main farm operator had off-farm employment, and the proportion of farms where the farmer and/or spouse had off-farm employment had reached 58%.�

While employment potential is still relatively high in some professional sectors, such as Science and ICT (Internet and Communications Technology), construction-related work and other manual and semi-skilled sectors have been are reducing their workforces.

Fast Forward to 2011, and the agricultural colleges are full of young potential farmers - a group to whom diversification appeals. With time on their side, better ICT skills, and sometimes a 3rd level education and some travel behind them, young farmers can be full of ideas for opportunities to generate novel sources of income.

Another significant driver of diversification is the new, central place agri-food takes up in plans for National Recovery. Harvest 2020 roadmaps growth in the agri-food sector from E8 billion to E12 billion by 2020, and diversified farm enterprises will be part of this drive.

According to preliminary findings from Teagasc's economic geographer David Meredith, 45% of farmers are interested in diversification. That his research was drawn from mainly larger dairy and drystock enterprises located in the Meath, Kildare and Wicklow area (with the remainder from Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo) makes this all the more significant: large, east coast farmers have not always been this interested in diversification.

He also points out that the rates of diversification in Ireland, though rising, are still very low. Less than 5%, or 5000 Irish farmers diversify, whereas in the UK, the figure is 51%.

However, in the UK, leasing space to businesses is a primary farm diversification, a factor which stems from the UK's dense population, and the proximity of most farmland to urban and industrial centres. So it is unlikely that anything like this level of diversification could happen in Ireland.

That said, farmers have certain advantages when it comes to diversification.

According to David Meredith, these include the fact that farmers, in general, have good business acumen; think long-term and strategically; are multi-skilled (from animal husbandry to administration); have access to personal supports -(i.e. family members' labour and skills); have access to community supports; understand regulatory frameworks; have valuable assets (for collateral, for storage, as workshop space) and low borrowings.

He cites the following as challenges: Raising capital to develop new businesses; raising sufficient capital to meet matched funding requirements; overcoming the risk attached to a new venture, particularly, the impact it could have on the continued viability of the farm enterprise; lack of information on available financial and other supports; uncertainty concerning impact of regulations; a lack of time to develop new enterprises.

There are other negatives too: its not just access to information on funding � the funding itself is under threat. The current LEADER embargo on on-farm food production, processing or preparation came as a bolt out of the blue for many applicants, and has seriously delayed many diversification plans. There is no guarantee it will be resolved in a way conducive to current applications.

Some of the first cuts of the recent recession were in agri-food, to REPS (Rural Environment Protection Scheme) and FEPS (Forest Environment Protection Scheme). Considering the length of the commitment and long term planning involved in forestry, the 8% FEPS premium cut in 2009 was especially severe. The scheme is also difficult to join now.

Likewise, the supports available under the AEOS scheme are nowhere near the REPS supports levels.

On the individual level, ICT skills are increasingly important, and this is not an area all farmers are comfortable with, though upskilling is available, and family members can be drawn on.

It is also the case that with cuts pending in the next sequence of budgets, and with the overall effect of the recession, there are demand problems too - potential customers have less money. Add to this what are considered especially strict interpretations of EU rules and regulations in Ireland when compared to elsewhere in the EU, for one of the key areas of diversification � artisan food processing (cheese, ice cream etc).

Farmers also have options other than diversification coming downstream, in particular upscaling and intensifying, with the end of dairy quota in 2015.

There are positives too. Certain areas in diversification are genuine growth areas. Sales of organic food on the mainland of the EU, where the recession has not been as difficult, are stable and rising. Indeed the organic market in Austria, Denmark, France, Germany and Switzerland continued to grow even in 2009-2010. All have increased growth rates for 2011.

In organics and elsewhere, it is also the case that forming a group - producer group, co-op or limited company - can pool resources and allow for economies of scale to develop, as the success the Leitrim Organic Co-op has in finding premiums for its members suggests.

Thinking more as a business person than just as a farmer can be beneficial too: Utilizing ICT is affordable in set-up terms. Selling on ebay or other similar sites has become more and more popular, whilst web-based sales are a real growth area in general.

In the UK, on-line sales in January 2011 were at the highest level for any January. There, according to the IMRG Capgemini e-Retail Sales Index, online retailers accrued �5.1bn sales for January this year, a massive 21% increase on last January.

According to Paul McCarthy of Teagasc, many areas in the green economy offer up significant potential. He lists �renewables, biomass, crops or services on the green side, wood chip, anaerobic digestion, wind, retrofitting houses even, miscanthus or willow�. McCarthy points out that there are also options to scale these up to a national level � as an example, a wood chip or a retro fit/insulation company can move from being a single farm nixer into a regional and then nationwide industry.

And while he is hopeful that supports in this area will grow, Ireland has stiff competition from elsewhere in terms or supports and returns. �For energy, to take one example, the odds are stacked against farmers here, compared to Northern Ireland. They have better paybacks from the National Grid, and their incentives are lined up� says McCarthy.

Innovation and planning are vital. Before you start, you may want to consider availing of background household budgeting supports.

Teagasc's Options programme is one such support. David Meredith: �Options works with farm households to assess their current status and evaluates what steps might be undertaken to sustain the farm business into the future. The programme takes a realistic look at the household's financial situation by first establishing the level of income generated from farm activities and off-farm employment�.

He continues: �the costs of running the farm enterprise and household living expenses are then assessed with regard to, firstly, the income situation and, secondly, future income needs which might revolve around making allowance for pension savings or sending children to college�.

Teagasc have developed a �Household Budget Calculator� which is available through their website. This calculator lets farm households track where the money goes every month, which is the first step in assessing their current status.

WHAT DO THE MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES SAY ABOUT ORGANIC FARMING AND GM?

Ella's blog has a handy guide to the Elections and agri-food policy for the main parties.

Its' here

Did a quick organic farming and food food scan through the docs, and here's what I found.

FG mentions of Organic in their agri-food document: 0

(strong mention of GM and moving beyond 'idealogical posturing' on page 17)

Labour: 3 (though two are the exact same words placed into two separate locations!)

(No mention of GM in agriculture/food)

Sinn Fein: 6 mentions; incl 2nd para; A standalone heading called - A funding initiative to promote organic farming in Ireland. They also have a stated anti-GM in agriculture/food position in the doc (not done page by page, just placed on site)

FF: 0 (and No mention of GM in agriculture/food)

GP: 0 (anti-GM in agriculture/food position has a category. pg 32)

Peak Phosphorus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

This EXCLUSIVE feature (with part 2 next time) deals with phosphorus availability to farming. While the primary thing that's going on in North Africa right now is a fight for democracy, in the context of this article, North Africa takes on a new significance...Especially Morocco .

Read on to see why....

(pic: phosphorus mining, from tree hugger)

Sometimes, it seems, its not that it rains but it pours. Just as the economy nosedives, a whole range of agri-food peaks seem to be emerging in tandem.

There's an impending peak in global oil availability. There is the peak of 350 parts per million in atmospheric carbon, which we have passed but hope to drop back to. Without doing so, we are over what scientists consider to be the safe limit and may trigger runaway climate change.

And now, there's peak phosphorus.

Of the farmers' Holy Trinity of N, P and K in the stalwart bag of 10-10-20, its the K that's most at risk.

While mined potassium will be available for centuries, and while nitrogen can be fixed from the air, mined phosphorus may only have decades left. What's more, a peak in supply may, according to a new report issued by the UK's Soil Association, come as soon as 2033.

This report, �A rock and a hard place: Peak phosphorus and the threat to our food security� points out that once we come close to and reach this peak, prices will inevitably start to rise.

Crucially, agriculture will have to adapt to this or face the possibility of failing to feed even more than the 8-900 million it currently fails to feed.

What has been called by the Scientific American �a geostrategic time bomb� colours the situation significantly: there are just three main global sources of phosphorus - the US, China and Morocco/Western Sahara.

According to the Soil Association report, �In 2009, 158 million metric tonnes of phosphate

rock was mined worldwide. 67% of this resource was mined in just three countries - China (35%), the USA (17%) and Morocco and Western Sahara (15%). China has now restricted, and the USA has stopped, exports of phosphate�.

So that basically leaves the rest of the world depending on Morocco.

The report claims that phosphate availability �is missing from the global policy agenda - we are completely unprepared to deal with the shortages in phosphorus inputs, the drop in production and the hike in food prices that will follow. Without fertilisation from phosphorus it has been estimated that wheat yields could more then halve in coming decades, falling from nine tonnes a hectare to four tonnes a hectare.�

Research released in 2008 by the pan-European QLIF (Quality Low Input Food) project reported found even more stark figures. It suggested that without phosphorus, non-organic wheat yields could fall from an average of eight to just 2.5 tonnes per hectare, while organic yields (of six tonnes per hectare) would also decline, though not as starkly. This is because organic farming encourages a wider number of sources of phosphate input.

According to Professor Carlo Leifert, one of the scientists at the University of Newcastle working on the project, �If you look at textbooks from 30 years ago, they estimate that we had about 500 years of phosphorus left. Now we are using about 125 million tonnes each year. Even optimists � and we are optimists � estimate that there is no more than about 60 years of phosphorus left now. And you can�t substitute one mineral fertiliser with another.�

The 2010 Soil Association report points out that �the current price of phosphate rock is approximately twice that of 2006. When demand for phosphate fertiliser outstripped supply in 2007/08, the price of rock phosphate rose 800%.�

It continues �A radical rethink of how we farm, what we eat and how we deal with human excreta, so that adequate phosphorus levels can be maintained without reliance on mined phosphate, is crucial for ensuring our future food supplies.�

Why such a slow rate of conversion to organic?

While organic farming has grown in popularity, the rate of growth has been slow. Why is this?

First, the figures themselves. Up until 2000, growth rates were fast. Then, a shock to beef and sheep exports froze the sector's growth until about 2005. From 2005 until today, there has been a faster rate of growth.

To put specific figures on this: in 1993, there were 283 holdings, with about 5,500 hectares of land.

This rose significantly year on year, with strong state supports, so that by 2000, there were 907.

However from 2000 to 2004 the numbers stagnated, fluctuating by small amounts year on year.

(image: an old IOFGA logo, c. 1989)

Growth since about 2005 has however been stronger. While the rate of increase has been small, the trend has at least been upwards each year since 2005.

The most recent 2008 figures claim 1450 operators, with 44,751 hectares: up c.9,500 hectares from 2005.

This trend is likely to continue from January to May 15th next year, when the window to convert to organic opens again.

However, encouraging and all as these figures are, they still represent a slow rate of growth, especially with the aim for 5% land area organic by 2012.

So why is the rate of growth so slow? One reason suggested by commentators is the conservatism of the farming community. Organic farming has been seen as an imported and urban or consumer-led phenomenon. These elements do not sit well with conservatism.

Also, farming is an isolated job; organic farming can seem doubly so, as by going organic, you are likely to be somewhat out of kilter with your neighbours.

The farming community has become very skeptical of official advice. Advice on farming has changed over the years, and this has cost farmers time and money.

Likewise, previously stable elements of the overall farming package, from FEPS to REPS, have been fundamentally altered. This has made planning difficult, change financially risky and trust of officialdom weak.

In this unstable context, advice to convert to organic farming will also inevitably be taken with a grain of salt.

That said, the new programme for government commitments to organic farming are strong. And while growth rates for organic food sales in Ireland are strong too, farmers I have spoken to fear the effects of recession on consumer priorities.

The overall effect of these positive and negative elements may be for more of the same: relatively steady but small growth rates for organic farming.

There are other slightly deeper reasons for slow growth rates.

Some question the need for organic farming at all. Southern Ireland never had an industrial revolution, whereas mainland Europe has had 300 years of one. Irish cattle and sheep eat a mainly grass based diet and Irish family farms are quite small even compared to Northern Ireland's. We are, to some extent, seen as a clean green island off the north west coast of Europe.

Of course, this is equally an argument for us to 'go the whole hog' as it were, sign up to organic and add to this clean green image. And while this happens to some extent, as seen in growth rates, this option is tempered by the conservatism outlined earlier.

Experts who study the dynamics between farming sectors have mapped out different stages of relationship between organic and conventional farming. These farming �institutional interrelationships� have three stages: pure competition, creative conflict and pure co-operation.

Pure competition exists when one side does not even acknowledge the other; creative conflict presumes some interactions and dialogue; pure co-operation presumes that both sides are signing from the same hymn sheet.

There are elements of the first two in Ireland at present: the IFA have had little to do with organic farming over the years. Even now, it has no dedicated organic farming committee. These suggest pure competition.

However, there are signs that this is, to a small extent, changing at present. Richard Moeran, chair of Cavan's IFA, for example, is an organic farmer. The numbers attending the organic farm walks this year was high.

Pure co-operation, however, is still a shimmer on the horizon.

New organic recruits: a lot done....

There has been a significant increase in the number of new applicants for conversion to organic, according to the two main certification bodies.

May 15th was the deadline for both the Organic Farming Scheme, and for REPS 4. The majority of organic farmers are in REPS, though it is no longer a technical requirement.

Some of the figures below are complicated by the fact that organic farmers often have mixed enterprises. It is also the case that these are preliminary and approximate, rather than final figures.

(photo: Am I boaring you?: by Steve Ford Elliott for attribution see here, for more of his work see here)

That said, both Organic Trust and the Irish Organic Farmers and Growers Association (IOFGA ) are pleased with progress.

According to IOFGA, they received about 150 new applicants. This is up from last year's 100, and the previous year's figure, which was just under 80.

This represents an increase of about 15% on their current membership of approximately 1000, or an increase of 50% on the numbers converting last year.

�The majority of the new applicants are livestock farmers� according to Angela Clarke, certification manager of IOFGA. �Most of these are beef farmers, with some sheep farmers as well�.

She points out that more of these applicants are growing grain for feed than in previous years.

Geographically, most IOFGA applicants this year have come from the west and north west.

Horticulture numbers remain small, with about 10 new applicants. However, of this number, there was no large, field scale operator who applied to convert.

Similarly, there were few dairy farmers opting for the organic option, with �about five� choosing this route. Even this is significant, however, as there are less than 20 in the republic at present.

IOFGA did not report significant new processors, retailers, seafood companies or exporters.

On the other hand, the Organic Trust have new applicants from processing, including meat processing and food businesses more generally.

They also claimed to have �a number of new retailers� and an organic soil conditioner according to Helen Scully, National Co-ordinator and Certification Manager.

A new trend for the Trust is applicants incorporating pigs into their enterprises.

Otherwise, there are similarities. Very few applicants in horticulture, with most for the Trust being from mixed enterprises.

While last year's deadline saw tillage farmers apply, this year they report no major moves in this sector.

Like IOFGA, most applicants were in beef and sheep. Their geographical spread is wide, and more balanced that other years, according to Helen Scully. However, there are still, for the Organic Trust, laggard counties such as Louth and Donegal.

In total, Organic Trust report an increase of 11% in their membership. Organic Trust are thought to have close to 500 members on their books at present.

The new certification body, IMO, remain in the aquaculture sector only, and have not yet received applicants from other sectors.

Because they are a global certification organisation involved in certification across many areas, those involved in export and processing are likely to be their main target area in the future.

There are a number of positives in these figures. They suggest that organics has grown since 2005, despite the recent recession.

Collective initiatives in upland livestock, the north west and in diary which may also increase the numbers.

However, it is still a slow rate of growth when compared to the plan in the programme for government of 5% land area converted to organic by 2012. At the current 1%, this remains an ambitious target.

As this 5% figure is for land area not productive capacity, the conversion of an Grianin, with 2500 acres next year, will be significant in adding to the figures.

Some in the organic sector, particularly in horticulture, have criticised the fact that the figure is land area based. They complain that as it may be possible to reach 5% but not increase production of organic food in Ireland significantly. Organic horticulture as an example can produce large amounts of food on a very small area of land.

As the always apt Fianna fail albatross proclaimed: A lot done, more to do.