Peak Phosphosus: between (another) rock and a hard place

Part 2 on Peak Phosphorus. (Again, the North African element makes this all the more pertinent than it was when I wrote this piece, due to the uprisings going on in that part of the world. Appears here exclusively.

For part one see here

Farming supplies of phosphorus come mostly from one part of the world - Morocco. They are also finite. A new Soil Association report suggests a peak in availability by 2033, as well as significant environmental concerns with current use in agriculture.

How could and should farming adapt to the finite nature of its inputs, in particular phosphorus? According to the Soil Association, there are three distinct action areas.

The first is changing how we farm. They point out that �different farming systems vary enormously in their reliance on mined phosphate. Organic farms are more resilient to the coming phosphorus rock �shock�, as it can only be used as a supplement to nutrient recycling (including crop rotations, green manures, and composting), and not as a replacement.�

They continue: �Organic crops generally have a lower fertiliser requirement than non-organic crops, with a greater capacity to scavenge for nutrients through denser and deeper root systems.�

They also suggest the need for a change in consumption patterns: �Eating less meat can reduce the demand for mined phosphate. This is because vegetable-based production is more efficient in its use of phosphorus than livestock production.�

However not all meat is the same: �Meat from livestock grazed on grassland that has not been fertilised with artificial fertilisers, will perform much better than meat from livestock grazed on fields that have been, or livestock fed on grain grown using artificial fertilisers.�

The third is novel but in terms of global nutrient cycles something of an unpalatable inevitability. Its changing how we deal with human excreta. The report recommends �a radical change in the way we treat human ex[c]reta and the need to abandon our current �flush-and-forget� toilet systems in favour of Ecological Sanitation.

�The report also calls for a change to EU organic regulations to allow the use of human sewage � rich in �natural� phosphate - on agricultural land to ensure phosphate levels are maintained. Globally only 10% of human waste is returned to agricultural soils. Urine alone contains more than 50% of the phosphorus excreted by humans.�

The use of these �Biosolids� (treated municipal/human sewage sludge) is already allowed in conventional agriculture.

I spoke to the report author Isobel Tomlinson (Soil Association) to explore these issues further.

Last one first: excreta. �in the longer term we recognise that there are problems with the current sanitation system: high water use, phosphorus water pollution, high energy-use as well as the continuing risk of contaminants - because industrial waste is added to the sewage system you get a risk from heavy metal contamination.�

Separating waste or, equally, nutrient, streams seems to be key: that's industrial from human, as mentioned, but also urine from solids:

�We think that we should move towards ecological sanitation which is a term that incorporates a range of different systems for solving these problems. We particularly mention urine-diverting systems as urine contains half of phosphorus excreted, is generally sterile and there are already examples of it being used in agriculture - for example Sweden. We would also like composting systems � the "humanure" approach - to be considered where appropriate.�

She also expands on the changing consumption and farming. Indeed, the two are connected, as what's produced is also consumed � either by animals or people.

According to Tomilson, along with changing production over to organic methods, what's needed is �An overall cut in dairy consumption, and dairy products to be sourced from grass-fed cows from extensive farming systems; More cereals and root crops and more seasonal fruit and vegetables; Less meat overall, but more grass-fed beef and lamb and less energy intensive, grain-fed and industrially-reared chickens and pigs.�

Ireland is well positioned to produce meat and milk extensively. We may, however, have to convince others to produce less and for us to be �The Producers� - i.e. the main suppliers for many parts of the world due to our extensive grazing. We may however, also have to make our grazing even more low input and grass-based - and do so not just for for phosphorus supply, but for many other environmental reasons too.

the Soil Association report is here

Local and Organic Food and Farming: The Gold Standard

Local and Organic Food and Farming: The Gold Standard

WHAT DO THE MAIN POLITICAL PARTIES SAY ABOUT ORGANIC FARMING AND GM?

Ella's blog has a handy guide to the Elections and agri-food policy for the main parties.

Its' here

Did a quick organic farming and food food scan through the docs, and here's what I found.

FG mentions of Organic in their agri-food document: 0

(strong mention of GM and moving beyond 'idealogical posturing' on page 17)

Labour: 3 (though two are the exact same words placed into two separate locations!)

(No mention of GM in agriculture/food)

Sinn Fein: 6 mentions; incl 2nd para; A standalone heading called - A funding initiative to promote organic farming in Ireland. They also have a stated anti-GM in agriculture/food position in the doc (not done page by page, just placed on site)

FF: 0 (and No mention of GM in agriculture/food)

GP: 0 (anti-GM in agriculture/food position has a category. pg 32)

Peak Phosphorus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

This EXCLUSIVE feature (with part 2 next time) deals with phosphorus availability to farming. While the primary thing that's going on in North Africa right now is a fight for democracy, in the context of this article, North Africa takes on a new significance...Especially Morocco .

Read on to see why....

(pic: phosphorus mining, from tree hugger)

Sometimes, it seems, its not that it rains but it pours. Just as the economy nosedives, a whole range of agri-food peaks seem to be emerging in tandem.

There's an impending peak in global oil availability. There is the peak of 350 parts per million in atmospheric carbon, which we have passed but hope to drop back to. Without doing so, we are over what scientists consider to be the safe limit and may trigger runaway climate change.

And now, there's peak phosphorus.

Of the farmers' Holy Trinity of N, P and K in the stalwart bag of 10-10-20, its the K that's most at risk.

While mined potassium will be available for centuries, and while nitrogen can be fixed from the air, mined phosphorus may only have decades left. What's more, a peak in supply may, according to a new report issued by the UK's Soil Association, come as soon as 2033.

This report, �A rock and a hard place: Peak phosphorus and the threat to our food security� points out that once we come close to and reach this peak, prices will inevitably start to rise.

Crucially, agriculture will have to adapt to this or face the possibility of failing to feed even more than the 8-900 million it currently fails to feed.

What has been called by the Scientific American �a geostrategic time bomb� colours the situation significantly: there are just three main global sources of phosphorus - the US, China and Morocco/Western Sahara.

According to the Soil Association report, �In 2009, 158 million metric tonnes of phosphate

rock was mined worldwide. 67% of this resource was mined in just three countries - China (35%), the USA (17%) and Morocco and Western Sahara (15%). China has now restricted, and the USA has stopped, exports of phosphate�.

So that basically leaves the rest of the world depending on Morocco.

The report claims that phosphate availability �is missing from the global policy agenda - we are completely unprepared to deal with the shortages in phosphorus inputs, the drop in production and the hike in food prices that will follow. Without fertilisation from phosphorus it has been estimated that wheat yields could more then halve in coming decades, falling from nine tonnes a hectare to four tonnes a hectare.�

Research released in 2008 by the pan-European QLIF (Quality Low Input Food) project reported found even more stark figures. It suggested that without phosphorus, non-organic wheat yields could fall from an average of eight to just 2.5 tonnes per hectare, while organic yields (of six tonnes per hectare) would also decline, though not as starkly. This is because organic farming encourages a wider number of sources of phosphate input.

According to Professor Carlo Leifert, one of the scientists at the University of Newcastle working on the project, �If you look at textbooks from 30 years ago, they estimate that we had about 500 years of phosphorus left. Now we are using about 125 million tonnes each year. Even optimists � and we are optimists � estimate that there is no more than about 60 years of phosphorus left now. And you can�t substitute one mineral fertiliser with another.�

The 2010 Soil Association report points out that �the current price of phosphate rock is approximately twice that of 2006. When demand for phosphate fertiliser outstripped supply in 2007/08, the price of rock phosphate rose 800%.�

It continues �A radical rethink of how we farm, what we eat and how we deal with human excreta, so that adequate phosphorus levels can be maintained without reliance on mined phosphate, is crucial for ensuring our future food supplies.�

The Red Wine Diet: the holy grail of health options?

Well worth watching, whilst sipping a glass of wine.

Actually.......

Red wine, about 11-12%, probably from south west France, with regionally specific grapes (especially tannat), long fermentation times, grown on a bit of a slope, on a vineyard with reasonably low yields. Phew.

U could also munch away on a bit of dark chocolate too......

Can Organic farming deliver multiple public policy goods? Yes it can!

Catchy title, eh? (!)

�The most interesting and important result of the CAP Reform to date has been that the public consultation and communication showed that people want agriculture to deliver on public goods, people want good quality food produced in a manner which does not compromise the environment.�

That's according to Christopher Stopes, current President of IFOAM, the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements.

He points out that there is some recognition of this fact at European Commission level. Their recent communication The CAP towards 2020, he states, �recognises the special quality organic farm products offer to consumers, and stresses the need to further strengthen the organic quality scheme as a policy tool�.

�If implemented in an ambitious way, this will be an asset for the future of the CAP, as organic

farming does not only provide consumers with high-quality food, but is also a comprehensive approach to deliver solutions for the challenges the Commission has so clearly lined out, including climate change, biodiversity loss, depletion of natural resources such as soil, water and nutrients, while also promoting enhanced animal welfare standards.�

Stopes was in Ireland recently, speaking in Tullamore at the rescheduled IOFGA AGM. He expanded upon these and other related points as keynote speaker at the event.

Pointing out the basic inconsistencies and failings of agriculture and food policies, he described a recent meeting with a financier who �made �150 million in speculation on grain in January this year�.

Who said there was no money in farming?

Meanwhile, 150 million more people have been pushed into hunger in the last three years than were previously.

In essence, the deregulation of markets has allowed food to be speculated upon and hoarded, even while people starve. Indeed, bumper crops in African countries can ironically and tragically lead to famine in the very country that produces the crop, through market reactions to said crop.

Exposing a lack of joined up thinking, Stopes also noted that food-related ill-health spending is the equivalent of �1/3 of the CAP budget anyway.�

Noting a kind of environmental future-proofing in the functioning of organic farms, he made an analogy: because hedges on farms allow for rotations, reduce parasites levels and increase biodiversity, Stopes describes organic farmers as �the real hedge fund managers�

Industry, he pointed out, has always been slow to warn about its own negative effects: �where have the warnings been from industry? The manufacturers didn't take it upon themselves to tell us. They stood by while the Rachael Carsons of the world actually said something�.

Comparing the organic farming and food sectors in the UK and Ireland, he pointed out that state support is stronger here than in the UK.

�In Harvest 2020, it states that organic supports should continue � organic is not even mentioned in the UK's equivalent document�

Bord Bia, he suggested, are far more supportive of organic food than their UK equivalents, the Food Standards Authority.

And the UK's DEFRA, unlike the Irish Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, do not organise a delegation to the trade show BioFach.

He hopes, however, for something of a leap of faith from organic being seen as a quality marker, as it is described in the recent CAP document, towards it being seen as a multifunctional deliverer of stated public policy goals.

While expanding Pillar 2 of the CAP offers the most hope for developing the organic sector, there are issues.

Not only does Pillar 2 receive less financial support from the overall CAP budget, �the big problem is that Pillar 2 requires co-financing by member states�. So there is �patchy support for organic policy� across the EU 27 as a result, he suggested.

The 'elephant in the living room', as it were, is the greening of Pillar 1. Traditional the domain of production only, he suggested that the greening of Pillar 1 would tie a far more significant number of public policy aims together.

For more, see IFOAM

How does your grass grow? Ask Gareth Jones

While there is plenty of advice on organic farming practices available in Ireland, there are accessible options across the water too.

Welshman Gareth Jones is one such option. Jones is part of Abacus Organic, a consultancy specialising in all aspects of organic farming and food business development.

Abacus Organic offer assistance in organic farm business management advice, food production, processing product development and procurement; all aspects of cropping, horticulture and livestock; health and safety, retail supply chain management, financial analysis, continuity programming, product development, food hygiene, food safety and more.

Many types of clients avail of these services, including clients in Ireland. Jones, one of Abacus Organic's Directors, was in Ireland last Summer visiting farms with the National Organic Training Skillsnet. (www.nots.ie)

He has also helped Ralph Haslam of Mossfield Cheese in Offaly reseed some of his fields in recent years. Having walked these fields on a couple of occasions in recent months, I have seen first hand the difference between the old and new fields.

In biodiversity terms, these new reseeded fields are incredible, with a great variety of plants and because of this, insects � dragonflies, crickets, ladybirds. And then, with the insects, there are many more birds due to the increase in bird food these insects provide.

But in pure farming terms - what about the productivity of the sward?

While he works mainly with organic farmers, Jones reckons that every farmer could benefit from a bespoke sward. �why not use grasses, clovers and herbs, and tailor these to your land and conditions?� he asks in his inquisitive, lilting tone.

�You'll save in fertility and in the time and effort involved in doing a job: the plants can last 15 years at least, which saves on fuel, compaction of soil and other considerations. Some of them can even last 25 years. Farmers are running around like headless chickens, they have no time, they are constantly watching grasses � crop watching. They could just change the sward.�

So what does Gareth Jones do in his own version of operation transformation? The starting point is fertility building and a soil sample. �We start with soil and soil type, take a sample, do a standard analysis for N, P and K�.

If there's a problem, if there are patches where crops aren't growing properly, or if there is a physical problem like waterlogging, we do a more comprehensive analysis. That's done once, and it gives answers that address a multitude of possible concerns. While its more expensive, it only has to be done once and not only does it tell you what you need to do, it tells you what you don't need to do. Sometimes farmers are applying lime and there's no need for lime. So it can save you time and money�.

I asked him about specific swards for specific purposes, and there was, literally, no stopping him. Great and intricate detail on every possible livestock and crop combination, and the plants to help with each of these. The relative merits of merviot versus milvous red clovers, rotations, peas or barley � Jones was in his comfort zone.

One thing he was especially keen to reiterate was the uniqueness of each farm, and what that should mean for the grasses grown: �It doesn't make sense really, I think, to just buy the standard mix of whatever it is. Seed companies have a mixture for a job � its the same for all regions, but the weather conditions are different everywhere�.

Moreover, �Soil type, overall altitude, topography within the field � is it flat or undulating � and if its undulating does that mean its peat at bottom and stone on top?� He's on a roll now, though always softly spoken and assured; �climate and moisture levels, direction - is it north facing? So I recommend making your own mix that suits not just your farm, but specific fields and specific soil types.�

Abacus Organics can be contacted here or 00 44 7855 484204 (Gareth Jones directly)