organic beef prospects for 2008

John Brennan is better positioned than most to conjecture on the main organic meat sectors� prospects for 2008. Along with being a farmer himself, he is also manager of Leitrim Organic Farmers� Co-operative. The Co-op has 185 farmer members. It also has a certified organic abattoir in Bawnboy, Cavan, run by Kevin Heeary. The Co-op sells its meat through its own mobile butcher�s unit and to Marks and Spencers.

According to John: �the price of conventional beef has gone up. In order for us to retain our premium, we need our prices to rise with the conventional prices. Most of the plants are talking �3.08 to �3.13 for conventional, whereas we�re at �3.93 a kilo. We need to retain a 25% differential, which we have at present.�

However there are issues for the sector: �there are a lot of cattle over 30 months of age in the system. At the moment, only the Good Herdsman is taking them. With the current cost of feed, farmers are maybe feeding cattle less and finishing them later�.

However, �this may lead to a tight supply in the next few months, which may lead to a price increase� according to John.

On feed, there are a number of issues, but there is also some positive news: �the good news is that we are seeing a substantial increase in the amount of suitable winter crops in Ireland. Crops such as soya and maize don�t grow well here, so we�re relying on imports from places like France. Other protein options would be peas or beans.�

The relevance of winter feed depends upon the stage you have the animals at, with winter finishers hardest hit:

�Most farmers in the west of Ireland feed very little grain anyway, whereas winter finishers in the rest of Ireland will feel it quite a bit.�

The price increase in feed has been sharp: �the typical beef ration, the 17% beef ration cost, this time last year �480 a tonne. Now it�s �550-600 a tonne. That�s a whopping great jump for farmers to have to cope with. And that�s with no great increase in price coming. That will certainly affect farmers going forward.�

Another issue is regulatory change. As and from the 1^st January all organically certified animals must be fed a 100% certified organic diet: �This too is adding to the costs for organic farmers. The change is good in that we can now reassure consumers that all feed is organically certified and non GM. However that cost has to be passed onto the consumer�.

There are some issues with this thesis. I put it to John that the consumer probably thinks that the feed is 100% already: Surely consumers are na�ve to the realities of farming and input availability � many urban consumers probably don�t even realise cattle eat anything other than grass. In this context, I suggested to John that organic farmers and their representative organisations and marketers are probably better off not making a song and dance about the sudden shift over to 100% organic feed:

John agrees, laughing: �maybe we are! Making the consumer aware of that might not be the best PR job for the sector at the moment. Overall, however, farmers will feel the effects of this change, especially the winter finishers�.

In general, John suggests that farmers may also have to start looking into the breed of cattle they stock: �We need to look at breeds that are more easily finished here, like the native breeds. Breeds such as Hereford and Angus don�t require huge amounts of grain to finish. We need to try to produce more meat with grass only, by introducing more proteins into the grass sward. This can be done through introducing clover into the sward�.