
In light of the new report issued today on climate change and its affect of agriculture, here's part one of a feature on climate change and farming.
The simple and objective facts of climate change are straightforward up to a point. The main question from an agriculture perspective is: how should the effort of readjustment be shared out amongst the sectors?
First, the facts: According to Dr. John Sweeney, (NUI Maynooth), The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) reports present �unequivocal evidence� that planet is currently experiencing �the loading of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere to concentrations not experienced for over 650,000 years...there is also now very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been at least five times greater than that due to solar output changes�.
This will affect water patterns, putting severe pressure on both agricultural productivity and populations, especially in wetlands, deltas and the driest parts of Africa. The rest of the world will have more extreme weather, while 20-30% of plant and animals species will also face a high risk of extinction.
In Ireland, this will make parts of Leinster, Ulster and even occasionally Munster more likely to suffer drought, with mid summer housing of animals a possibility. Crop growing patters will alter, with potatoes more difficult to grow apart from in the north west.
Reduced fertilizer application, extensification, summer water shortages and pest/disease pattern alteration are all likely to occur.
However, the overall effects will not be as serious in Ireland or to Irish agriculture as elsewhere. Most main sectors will get to continue, albeit in a modified form.
There are two main targets the government is working towards � Koyoto (up to 2012) and the EU targets (up to 2020).
The Kyoto Protocol limits Ireland�s total national emissions to an average of 62.8 million tonnes of CO2e, per year in the period 2008 � 2012. This is 13 per cent above the 1990 baseline estimate.
Importantly for agriculture, Co2e means carbon dioxide equivalent � other Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), such as methane and nitrous oxide are measured as compared to carbon dioxide in terms of their global warming potential. Methane is considered 21 times more damaging than carbon dioxide, a figure which may even be upgraded to 25 times soon.
The EU targets of a 20% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 2005 figures are more recent and more challenging.