The absolutely latest organic sales figures that I've managed to access, which I received today,

through Bord Bia from TNS, suggest the following for January 2009:
Sales of organic groceries: up 11%
Sales of conventional groceries: up 2.7%
Isn't that amazing? Despite all the hype, despite people's presumptions, despite people presuming the UK reality must always be the Irish reality, sales of organic produce is up 11% on last January's figures.
What's more, only a specific set of barcoded products are tracked by TNS. Organic accounts for a significant ammount of unbarcoded sales (e.g. loose fresh fruits and vegetables at farmers' markets) .
In other words, the true figure of organic sales increases may be higher again.
(Pic from the Wiki creative commons)Below is an article on the statements people make about future spends - these always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, as people always paint themselves well in polls (well as in frugal these days)
According to a recent TNS mrbi survey on consumer spending plans for 2009, all consumer products will be affected by the state of the economy.
The organic sector can perhaps take some solace from the fact that that out of 18 spending options, it is placed 6th from the top, with the top being the least changed consumer spend.
Concerts, renting DVDs and overnight stays all fare far worse. Organic food will not be affected as much as treats - going out to drink - or bigger spends and investments, such as electrical items for the house.
However this consumer self assessment suggests that the spend on organic food will be 2/3 the level of 2008.
In general, it can be taken that the consumer will be more careful and thoughtful, and will put off some of the very big and perhaps unnecessary spends.
It is hard to be certain about how this sentiment will transfer into the weekly shop as the year unfolds, as food is neither a luxury nor a big marquee spend.
The different types of organic food are not demarked in this survey. A generic desire to spend less on organic is not subtle enough to be of much use to the food producer: how different will the organic food spend be on meat and milk when compared to pizzas and popcorn?
In other words, will it be more likely that consumers will think in the same way about their organic food preferences as their conventional ones, by keeping the staples?
Another confusing notion is surveying 100% of people about what only 45% of people actually do - purchase at least one organic item each month.
When I put this to TNS, they stated that �the data has been repercentaged (sic) to exclude those that do not buy organic�.
This then becomes a lottery of self-assessed organic consumers, where the respondents� relative organic spend does not even get taken into account.
Much of the growth in organics in the current decade has come from committed organic consumers expanding their purchasing range of organic food, rather than for new consumers, so the survey gives us little steer on the likelihood of these sales being affected.
There are always issues with aspirational surveys such as this one: in other words surveys which outline what people hope they will do in the future.
Perhaps these sorts of surveys should come with the kind of health warning that comes on a box of 20 Major.
According to this same survey, a full 49% claimed that they would be spending less on cigarettes in the coming year.
What exactly this means to the surveyor and to the surveyed, and how they are reconciled, is a minefield.
According to TNS, �spending less on cigarettes does not mean stopping smoking, but maybe cutting down one or two cigs a day, or switching to a cheaper brand or buying more duty free/illicit.�
Does the smoker hope, as almost all do, that they will just smoke less or even quit? This survey was conducted in the resolution month of January, after all.
In surveys, people tend to paint themselves in a positive light. Frugality is now chic, so promising to yourself that you�ll spend less on organic food probably resonates well with the consumer�s new self image. This may or may not transfer over into behavioural changes.
It is surely noteworthy that organic was in the indulgence category of the survey.
This would come as news to many, especially in the staple end of the market.
If I have another month of organic turnip soup indulgence, with the turnip clocking in at 1.20 in Tescos, I�d hate to see hardship.
However, it is certainly clear that the mainstream consumer is thinking about things never thought of since before the Tiger, and the organic sector like all the others needs to be aware of this.
Value is a combination of quality and price. To convince people of the price, the quality has to be there.
A Micra costs less than a Merc. Everyone knows and understands this. Does everyone know and understand why organic food is good value?